SCOTUS Poised to strike down Second Clause of Voting Rights Act

Varun Mekala

On Wednesday October 15th, the Supreme Court heard Louisiana v. Callais (24-109) and Robinson v. Callais (24-110). Two distinct cases that have been combined by the Supreme Court because they challenge the same lower court ruling. The question central to this case is as follows: does a  State’s creation of a second minority-majority district violate the 14th and 15th amendment? Let’s dive right in.

To understand this case we need to understand the precedent set in 1993 by Shaw v.Reno. North Carolina established a redistricting plan with a wacky shape. The shape was so irrational that it was determined it was an effort to separate voters based on race and violated the Fourteenth Amendment's Equal Protection Clause.

In that case, the Supreme Court decided that while states can use race to comply with the Voting Rights Act (VRA) and create majority-minority districts, race cannot be the "predominant factor" in determining congressional districts.

This precedent is central to Louisiana v. Callais and Robinson v. Callais, as the Supreme Court is now examining whether Louisiana's creation of a second majority-Black district crosses the line and uses racial gerrymander.  The Court's decision will determine the "breathing room" states have to comply with the Voting Rights Act without violating the Constitution.

The stakes in the Callais cases are high because they force the Court to confront the conflict between the ban on race-based districting and the requirement of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) to remedy minority vote dilution. The Supreme Court's specific instruction to the parties to address "Whether the State's intentional creation of a second majority-minority congressional district violates the Fourteenth or Fifteenth Amendments" suggests the Court may narrow the "breathing room" states currently have with the Voting Rights Act. Consequently, the outcome of the Louisiana cases could either affirm the Voting Rights Act as a tool for achieving fair representation or limit it in redistricting.

My prediction of the result is 6-3 in favor of striking down Louisiana’s redistricting plan. The likely majority would be Chief Justice Roberts, and Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett, and the likely dissent would be Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson.